Tuesday, November 27, 2012

" The Fiscal Cliff Fantasy"

All we hear about these days is the "fiscal cliff" - if something is not done before the end of the year $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts effective January 2nd will send the economy into another recession. I think the average American has their head in the sand; we have already gone off the fiscal cliff and are now in a financial "abyss". If we are smart (not probable with our political leaders) we might be able to climb out of the abyss and possibly get back to the edge of the cliff before we go bankrupt. If that can be done we would at least have a chance to get the country moving in the right direction again.

Here are some simple statistics:

- Our annual spending deficit is over $1 trillion. If the country goes "over the cliff", then spending and new taxes will reduce the deficit by $500 billion annually, while still leaving a $500 billion deficit. So by the end of the Obama's four years the national debt will still INCREASE to $18 trillion.

- And that is just the tip of the iceberg. According to the experts the unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Social Security, and pension funds/health care premiums for federal employees total $87 trillion...I'll repeat that - $87 trillion. It makes our present $16 trillion debt seem like we are rolling in dough.

Sadly most Americans have no idea what an "unfunded liability" is, and most don't care. But the truth is that this country is hopelessly in debt as a result of decades of financial mismanagement by politicians from both sides, who are more interested in getting reelected that telling their constituents the truth.

The election of Obama was stunning in that the majority voted for "more of the same".  Obama can't take all the blame for this country's financial demise, but he certainly gets the lion's share since the national debt increase under him has totaled more than all the Presidents before him.

I believe that people voted for Obama for one of two reasons; they have no idea what financial trouble this country is in and voted the democratic party line, OR they know the country is in financial trouble and because they are getting "free stuff" (welfare, food stamps, extended unemployment, disability, subsidized housing, etc.), their self-interest trumps their sense of responsibility to the country,  i.e. they want to get their free stuff as long as it's available.

Whatever the solution of this financial "abyss" turns out to be, it will require pain,  affecting every American.  That is the only sure prediction for the future.

Someone recently said that the situation is so far gone that 'policy" cannot change things at this point, especially with a socialistic administration in power.  They contend that an "event" will be the only thing that will get the country back on track (if that is possible).  That event could be the devaluation and collapse of the dollar, hyper-inflation, or possibly the financial default of the US government. Sooner or later the money will just run out, the printing presses at the Fed will be worthless, and those people lending us 40 % of every dollar we spend will finally say "no mas".



Wednesday, November 7, 2012

"Gridlock Redux?"

If you are a Liberal, you are happy today.

If you are a Conservative, like me, you are not only unhappy, but stunned that a majority of Americans could vote to keep the country on the same downward track of the last four years. Yes, Obama did inherit a mess left by George Bush and he rode the "blame Bush" pony for the past four years. And it worked, since in exit polls more of his voters believed the economic problems in this country were due to Bush and not Obama. If he tries to continue to ride that pony the next four years, I don't think even his hard core supporters will buy it.

So the pressure is on for him to make something out of his presidency these next four years, and that means somehow to become a "leader" - a quality missing in his first term. Last night and this morning both he and Harry Reid, leader of the Senate, have said: "We need to start working together". Where were they the last four years?

I give credit to the Obama campaign. Whether or not you believe they used dirty Chicago politics, they won. Painting Romney as a rich guy that could not relate to the average Joe, or that he would set women's rights back a century, or that he would make sure the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, was all smoke but it worked. The whole strategy was to attack Romney while never discussing Obama's past performance or his future plans. His support from the main stream media certainly was a factor. And with millions of Americans receiving some sort of government support (welfare, disability, food stamps, unemployment, subsidized housing, free cell phone, etc.), who do you think they voted for? But election campaigns are about winning, and they pulled it off. Congratulations to them.

Some say the election was a "mandate", so ironically the pressure is all on Obama this next term. The Republican House retained their majority and almost all of the Conservative Tea Party members were re-elected, so they also have their mandate. It therefore falls on the President to pull these sides together and accomplish something.  After all isn't that what leadership is all about? I don't think most Americans will accept the "blame game" the next four years, and his main stream media friends may not either.