Tuesday, November 27, 2012

" The Fiscal Cliff Fantasy"

All we hear about these days is the "fiscal cliff" - if something is not done before the end of the year $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts effective January 2nd will send the economy into another recession. I think the average American has their head in the sand; we have already gone off the fiscal cliff and are now in a financial "abyss". If we are smart (not probable with our political leaders) we might be able to climb out of the abyss and possibly get back to the edge of the cliff before we go bankrupt. If that can be done we would at least have a chance to get the country moving in the right direction again.

Here are some simple statistics:

- Our annual spending deficit is over $1 trillion. If the country goes "over the cliff", then spending and new taxes will reduce the deficit by $500 billion annually, while still leaving a $500 billion deficit. So by the end of the Obama's four years the national debt will still INCREASE to $18 trillion.

- And that is just the tip of the iceberg. According to the experts the unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Social Security, and pension funds/health care premiums for federal employees total $87 trillion...I'll repeat that - $87 trillion. It makes our present $16 trillion debt seem like we are rolling in dough.

Sadly most Americans have no idea what an "unfunded liability" is, and most don't care. But the truth is that this country is hopelessly in debt as a result of decades of financial mismanagement by politicians from both sides, who are more interested in getting reelected that telling their constituents the truth.

The election of Obama was stunning in that the majority voted for "more of the same".  Obama can't take all the blame for this country's financial demise, but he certainly gets the lion's share since the national debt increase under him has totaled more than all the Presidents before him.

I believe that people voted for Obama for one of two reasons; they have no idea what financial trouble this country is in and voted the democratic party line, OR they know the country is in financial trouble and because they are getting "free stuff" (welfare, food stamps, extended unemployment, disability, subsidized housing, etc.), their self-interest trumps their sense of responsibility to the country,  i.e. they want to get their free stuff as long as it's available.

Whatever the solution of this financial "abyss" turns out to be, it will require pain,  affecting every American.  That is the only sure prediction for the future.

Someone recently said that the situation is so far gone that 'policy" cannot change things at this point, especially with a socialistic administration in power.  They contend that an "event" will be the only thing that will get the country back on track (if that is possible).  That event could be the devaluation and collapse of the dollar, hyper-inflation, or possibly the financial default of the US government. Sooner or later the money will just run out, the printing presses at the Fed will be worthless, and those people lending us 40 % of every dollar we spend will finally say "no mas".



22 comments:

Jim from Templeton said...

I had always said that BHO could not bring this country to its knees in one, but he could well do it in two.

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

Chuckie D said...

It does make you wonder if Obama and in minions are doing this on purpose, or they are so blinded by their socialist ideology that they just don't think about what is happening to the country.

Anonymous said...

The numbers you cite are beyond the comprehension of most people and that is one reason they don't take the debt as seriously as people that can read a balance sheet. However, I disagree with your position that we are in a financial abyss. This is a good link that illustrates the Government debt situation since the Revolutionary War.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/debt_deficit_history

The summary is that the real risk from government debt is the burden of interest payments. Experts say that when interest payments reach about 12% of GDP then a government will likely default on its debt. The US is a long way from that point. It is the task of future administrations to pull the country back from that tipping point.

Ending resource wasting wars, while focusing on domestic infrastructure and encouraging "true" investment, rather than speculative investment is the path to fiscal health. They also need to increase revenues and cut entitlements. Lets hope they start working together in Washington instead of continuing to push their minority agendas over the National good.

Bob said...

Bob Blackburn

I think you hit the mark with "self-interest". The non-working and blue collar worker likes what he has, pays no taxes and all kinds of free programs from food, baby sitting and medical just to mention a few. And California is leading the way!

Chuckie D said...

Anonymous - Chantrills analysis is accurate but missing some very important items. According to a recent WSJ analysis, the government's "balance sheet" does not include some major liabilities - "unfunded liabilities" of Medicare and Social Security (about $62 trillion). Including these items destroys his analysis. Explained in this article. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323353204578127374039087636.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Anonymous said...

Agreed, but that would be part of entitlement reform, which is a "must do", along with tax reform. If those are accomplished in this administration, then the fiscal crisis is a long way towards resolution. Bob mentioned the blue collar workers and their free programs, but we also have subsisized oil and coal, cattlemen paying a pittance of value for grazing on public lands, mining royalties on public lands, etc, etc. Those are also special interest taxpayer subsidized programs that need serious review. If you look at just the excess costs of Medicare, and the cost of two Wars we have been fighting, the "free stuff" for the blue collar workers is a pittance in comparison.

Chuckie D said...

Anonymous - your right about the path to fiscal health will being through increase of revenues and cutting entitlements. But with a basic philosophical difference in Washington, and in the country in general, I don't see it happening. Democrats will not agree to cut entitlements - it is the reason for their existence. Democrats also believe the only way to increase revenues is to raise taxes. Republicans believe the the only way to increase revenues is to reduce taxes, reduce government and all it's tentacles restricting business, create opportunities, and get more people working and paying taxes. Good luck.

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