If the Wisconsin primary polls are accurate, it looks like the Trump and Hillary trains may hit a bit of a 'speed bump'.
Each loss by The Donald makes it look more and more like a contested Convention. Experts tell us that if neither Trump nor Cruz reaches the 1237 required to secure the nomination, and if neither can muster that many votes during the first round of voting, the delegates will be free on the second round and things could break wide open and anyone can be nominated. Kasich is nothing but a spoiler at this point and unless they change the rules, he cannot even be included in the first round of voting since you need to win a majority in at least eight primaries. It would not surprise me if the 'establishment' was funding his campaign just so he can keep Trump and Cruz from winning outright.
All the news lately is about a "chaotic" Republican convention, especially from Trump who says that if he is close to the 1237 number but is denied the nomination, there could be unrest by his supporters, and maybe even 'rioting'. So the Republican Convention holds the promise of being a very interesting event.
But what about the Democratic Convention?
Bernie Sanders has now won six out of the last seven primary contests (many of them caucuses) and must have the Hillary campaign somewhat concerned; he is also slightly ahead in the polls in Wisconsin. All the experts believe the primary is rigged for Hillary and Bernie is just coming along for the ride. With a big lead and almost all of the super delegates committed to her, Bernie doesn't seem to have much of a chance. Even Debbie Wasserman-Shultz the DNC chairman has been heard privately saying that he will never be their candidate because; "He has always been an Independent and not a Democrat".
But think about this: Some believe Hillary may be indicted (I don't think so); even if the FBI recommends indictment political power in DC will keep that from happening. The FBI is planning to interview Hillary and her top aids under oath in the near future; in addition the man that set up and installed her private server has agreed to testify after being given immunity (why would he ask for immunity?). None of this looks good for the Hillary train. Even if the FBI recommends indictment and the Obama administration refuses to move forward, that will leak out to the press and could cause Hillary to lose big in the remaining primaries and not cinch the nomination.
And if by a miracle that happens and Hillary and Bernie go into the convention with neither having a majority, and neither secure the nomination on the first round, the DNC could send someone like Joe Biden into the convention on a white horse to secure the nomination for the "establishment". It's not probable, but wouldn't it be ironic if that happened and the Bernie supporters went wild and the Democratic convention ended up being crazier than the Republican convention?
Could be an interesting summer, and one thing we know for sure, Liberals are much better at rioting than Conservatives.
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3 comments:
What an interesting result in the WI primary. Bernies "slight" lead turned into a 13% point rout of HC, it looks like he will take WY also, and his light at the end of the tunnel is getting a little brighter with each win. New York will be the "big one". If he takes HC down there he has a much clearer path to the nomination......at that point I think Super Delegates might start jumping off the HC train.
Cruz and Trump are still slugging it out, Kasik is still in lalaland, and that contested Convention looks highly possible now. One disturbing issue with the Trump Campaign was the comment that, if there is a contested Convention, they will release the hotel rooms of the Cruz leaning delegates, and the undecideds (how will they get them.....dirty tricks and payoffs to hotel staff) to the Trump "soldiers". Those folks will then personally call on (shall we say harass) those delegates when they are off the convention floor. Brings to mind the Brownshirts that Hitler used. If I were a delegate that would put me firmly in the camp of "anyone but Trump" if they did that to me. That tactic might seriously backfire.
All of this Presidential Primary brouhaha has also pulled media attention away from the Congressional races. THAT is where the real contest for control of the Government lies. Earlier this year, control of the Senate was "maybe" in play, but it now looks like both Houses of Congress could see major turnover and you never know who will be in control when the SCRUM untangles. I guess it will soon be time to get out the popcorn and cold beer because the entertainment is not going to stop right up to November. Let's hope we get an effective Government out of it because sixteen years is too long for the Republic to flounder as the World around us crumbles into ISIS chaos.
Remember this Blog, it could turn out to be very prophetic, especially on the democratic side. When Hillary saw the margin of her loss in Wisconsin she must have had to change her pantsuit bottoms. But it's still about the super delegates who for now are in the Clinton machine's pocket. NY and Pennsylvania will be key and polls are closing. My dream is for Bernie to beat Hillary because the Republicans will then have a Reagan landslide - this country is not going to elect a socialist, especially one who has no idea how to pay for all his 'free stuff'. Of course I also more than anything want to see Hillary and Bill fade into the sunset and never be heard from again.
Chuck, you are wearing those rose colored glasses again. Virtually every poll in the Country has the Republican Party losing the WH this election, regardless of their candidate. Further, if Bernie is the candidate the loss margin is greater than with HC. The Republican Party should be focusing on the Congressional seats at risk, or the election will truly be a political rout. Registered Republicans have been declining in numbers for years and are well below 50 % of the population. The only way the RP gets into office is to swing Independents and they are firmly behind Sanders. If the Dems win a majority in both Houses of Congress, you will be right, the will be significant Socialist reform in the USA. A Socialist President alone won't have much effect, with a Republican lead Congress.....just look at the last 4 years.
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